Marikina Valley fault line, earthquakes and what to do...

After the devastating 9.0 magnitude earthquake that hit Japan and triggered the 10m tsunami, experts reveal a grim scenario for Manila.

According to National Institute of Geological Science Mahar Lagmay, the Philippines experience at least 5000 earthquakes each year and a 5.0 magnitude is normal fare. The last strong intensity, 7.9-magnitude earthquake happened 21 years ago on July 16, 1990 (Luzon earthquake that toppled Hyatt Terraces Hotel) and 4 years earlier, on August 17, 1976 (Moro Gulf earthquake).  He said "statistically, the metropolis is likely to be hit on an average by a strong (Intensity VII) earthquake every 17 years; moderately strong (Intensity VIII) earthquake every 79 years; and extremely strong earthquake (Intensity IX) in 112 years."

There are five seismic source zones in the Philippines: (1) Markina Valley Fault System (right photo), (2) Philippine Fault Zone, (3) Lubang Fault, (4) Casiguran Fault and (5) Manila Trench. The Marikina Valley Fault and the Philippine Fault Zone are the ones which can strongly affect Manila.

The Marikina Valley Fault extends all the way North of Angat and cuts through Quezon City, Pasig, Taguig,  Muntinlupa, Sta. Rosa all the way down to the fringes of Tagaytay (click google map here to check location). The magnitudes predcted from the Marikina Valley fault varies from 6-7.0 (Nelson et al, 2000) to 7.2 (MMEIRS, 2004) to a maximum of 7.7 (Rimando & Kneufer, 2006).  Lagmay said that a 7.0 to 7.9 magnitude is considered a ‘major earthquake’ and may cause serious damage with an intensity of VII or higher. Residents living 5m from the left/right of the fault line are warned of the potential damage caused by an earthquake. This is, possible collapse of structures caused by ground shaking and worst, ground rupture. Those living near coastal and river sediments may experience destructive effects due to ground liquefaction.

Based on the evidences of movement collected through the years and using the elastic rebound theory, he said that there is a strong indication that a 7.2 magnitude earthquake may occur. And if this happens, the 2004 MMEIRS earthquake model scenario for a Valley Fault of magnitude 7.2 (referred to as Model 8 or ‘worst case’) estimates: 170,000 residential houses collapse, 340,000 residential houses will be partly damaged, 34,000 persons will die,114,00 persons will be injured. Secondary disaster includes fire breakout that may burn approximately 1,710 hectares and 18,000 additional lives lost. Also, infrastructures and lifelines will also be heavily damaged.

Recently the Metropolitan Manila Development Authority (MMDA) has drawn up an earthquake response plan called  "Oplan Metro Yakal". Under the plan, in case of an intensity 8 earthquake, fuel shall be rationed; in case of an intensity 7, classes in all levels will be suspended for three days or more; and in case of a high magnitude quake, all grocery stores will be kept open from 6 a.m. to 10 p.m, (assuming they have not collapsed). Four evacuation sites were designated for the different sectors in Manila: North- Veteran’s golf course in Quezon City; South - Villamor golf course in Pasay City; East- Wack Wack golf course in Mandaluyong City; and West - Intramuros golf course in Manila.


Indeed as the saying goes, it is better to be safe than sorry. Lagman offered tips for earthquake safety and awareness: (1) estimate the size of the earthquake that may occur; (2) given the size, estimate what the shaking will be; (3) given the shaking, estimate the response of different types of buildings.

To plan for an earthquake, he advised to establish a meeting place where all family members can reunite (for those with children, find out about earthquake plans developed by the school),  secure items at home for things that could fall or move; and to remember that transportation may be disrupted and best to prepare an emergency surivval kit that is good for 72 hours. The kit should contain essential provisions like water (about 3.5 lites or gallon per person per day), food, a whistle, flashlight and extra batteries, a first aid kit with necessary medicine, antiseptic, scissors, bandages. Rice, easy to open canned goods, noodles and a transistor radio is good to have. Have emergency cash and important documents like passports and hospital records within reach and wear sturdy shoes. 

Lastly, in case of earthquake, the best protective action is to "duck-cover-hold". Below is Philvoc's guide on what to do before-during-after an earthquake:

 

Utol Jess of Haring Bakal

I met Utol Jess Verallo of Haring Bakal fame (literally translated as "King Iron") in the Academy of Wholistic Healing Arts or AWHAI. This is the one of the alternative healing centers I frequent; particularly for Dorn therapy, Hilot massage, Reiki and once, for  psychic surgery.

The center,  founded in 2003, is run by Jo Bilasano, a noted spiritual healer, reiki master and who is regarded as a 'saint' in Russia. Her  vision is to develop the latent healing power in each one of us.

On March 23, I trekked to AWHAI to witness Utol Jess' mystical rites. He uses a "bolo", a long heavy, single-edged knife (right photo) to strike those who wish to receive protection against harmful metal objects - this includes knives and yes, bullets! Mind you the bolo is very, very sharp.

The number of strikes depends on the level. The first timers are struck six times: three on the thigh and the other three on the gut. The second level is 21 strikes  which includes the legs. The third level is 36 strikes which includes the nape. And lastly,  57 strikes which includes the two sides of the neck and the head.

Not just anyone can receive this special gift. Utol Jess is quite strict in his selection process. Aside from requiring to submit NBI, police and barangay clearances, he does a special prayer first to sense if the person's intention is right.

Here's a video of the second level:

http://youtu.be/UrH_01U34UY

Half marathon at the Hong Kong Standard Charter Marathon

Brrrrrrr! It was cold at 13 degrees and rainy. Marge, Nino and I were part of the 65,000 who ran in the Standard Charter Hong Kong marathon on February 20, 2011.

I must say, it was a very organized race event. There were three race categories - the full marathon (42kms), the half  (21kms) which I joined and 10km.

The starting line was located at Nathan Road in Kowloon and the finish was at the soccer pitch in Victoria Park, Causeway Bay.  Unlike last year in the Great Wall marathon where we got up at 2am and traveled 2 hours from Beijing, we just walked to the start line. The half-marathon gun start was early at 5:45 am while the full was 35 minutes later at 6:20.

Aside from the cold weather, the course was hard and hilly from - Nathan to Jordan, up the bridge towards Lai King, U-Turn on Tsing Ma bridge which was windy and chilly, the run back provided a spectacular view of the Victoria Harbor with the sun rising, down the Western Harbour tunnel  up a long incline, meandering up a flyover and on the streets of Central down to Causeway where a crowd of people were now lined up on the streets cheering.

I must say that the security was aplenty as well as medical support. Most of the medics were handing out white flower smelling liniments. There were lots of portalets often a queue though and water stations every 5kms. Warning the water and sports drinks were served cold!

I was conscious of the time limit pegged at 3 hours for the half marathon (and 6 hours for the full course). The 10km leg should be completed by 1hour and 30 minutes or at 7:15am and 21km in 3 hours or at 8:45am. They were quite strict about implementing the limits. In fact, a net has been set up at different checkpoints. Marge actually saw one along the course. Luckily, I made the cut off time and finished in 2:46 minutes!

Champions were Kenyan nationals Nelson Kirwa Rotich and Janet Jelagat Rono, who won the Men’s and Women’s full marathon with respective times of 2:16:00 and 2:33:42. For the half marathon, the winners were Hong Kongers Thomas Kiprotich in the Men’s event with time of 1:07:14 and Yiu Kit-Ching for the Women’s with a time of 1:20:33. Filipina Mary Grace Delossantos took third place with a time of 1:28:22.

On the sidelines, our friend Ria V.  helped wheelchair triathlete Ajmal Samal protest and distribute "Same Road, Same Spirit" flyers that day. The Hong Kong marathon has a category for disabled athletes; I was actually pacing behind a visually impaired Japanese woman with her guide. But unfortunately, there is no category  for wheelchair athletes.

Wheelchair athletes have been participating in marathon events for over 35 years in Boston (1975), London (1983), Seoul (1992), New York (2000) and Delhi (2005). Samuel who has competed all over the world said that the Hong Kong race would “never be classified as one of the world's best if it continued to prohibit wheelchair competitors.” The 43-year old Samuel represented Hong Kong in 2006 at the All-China Disabled Biking Race, finishing second; competed in the handcycling segment of the gruelling Tour de France in 2007; and finished second in Singapore’s Aviva-Ironman Triathlon in 2007.

Lets see how that pans out next year as for me, next up is the Paris Marathon on April 10.

Toy Customization workshop with PSP at Lopez Museum

When I walked in the Toy Making Workshop for kids at Lopez Museum this morning, I was surprised to see all adults in the class. Yes 12 adults in a supposedly kid's workshop.   The workshop  was conducted by three members of the street art collective  Pilipinas Street Plan (or PSP) - Whoop, Wes and Epjey.  In fact, Whoop said that they started late because they were waiting for the kids to arrive.

Today instead of learning taka, a traditional art form practiced in Paete, Laguna using  papier-mâché , PSP taught us how to customize toys.  This is the art of changing a toy from its original form simply through painting and drawing. PSP brought several plastic toys of various shapes and sizes for us to work on - cars, robots and dolls.

Toy customization was made popular in 2002 when Robert Budnitz introduced plastic vinyl toy dolls called  'munny' which is a blank figure with movable joints meant for do-it-yourself art. The price of munny figures online ranges from $9 for a 4-in size to $200 for 18-in.  Just the same,  as PSP showed, any old toy can be customized. All you need is water-based paint, paint brushes, cups to mix paint, water, rags and paper towels. I would add an apron since I managed to stain my clothes all over with paint.

The first step is to apply base paint using white acrylic paint.  A tip is to rub the toy and hands first with alcohol to remove oil before applying the base paint. Otherwise, it will come out like my robot on the right.

Once the base paint dries up, the next step is to start painting and then drawing.  A tip is to use a blow dryer to dry faster. My creative models were artworks by PSP's Nemo, Epjey and Whoop. Actually, the whole area was inspirational. The workshop was held inside gallery 2 where PSP literally transformed the area into street art with graffiti, mixed media, vinyl toys, taka and including props like rubber tires. One wall had a giant Philippine map with some sites labeled with stickers, stenciled and sprayed images. According to Whoop, the labels indicate where PSP's art are present all the way up north in Luzon and down south in Mindanao.

After two hours, here's my masterpiece  I dubbed "L'amuse bouffan".  Our artworks will be included in the fund raising event on February 19, 2011 in Art in the Park in Salcedo Village in Makati. The proceeds will go to Knowledge Channel Foundation’s programs for Filipino schoolchildren.

Other works:

Tara

Teacher Ria

Martin

Karen

and meet our facilitators, the PSP street artists:

Whoop

Wes

Epjey

PSP is one of the featured artists in the ongoing exhibition "Extensions" which will run at Lopez Museum until April 20, 2011. I hope the museum collaborates with PSP again and push through with Taka soon!